================================================================ SPACE LAUNCH REPORT ACTIVE LAUNCH VEHICLE RELIABILITY STATISTICS ================================================================ by Ed Kyle as of May 07, 2024 ================================================================ Top active space launch vehicles ranked by Lewis point estimate of their orbital success rate*. Failures include incorrect orbits. ================================================================ Lewis Successes Point AdjWald Consc. Last Dates Vehicle /Attempts Est* 95%CI* Succes Fail =============================================================== Falcon 9 v1.2 310/310(D)0.997 0.99-1.00 310 None 2015- Atlas 5 98/99 0.98 0.94-1.00 88 06/15/07 2002- CZ-2D 88/89 0.98 0.93-1.00 56 12/28/16 1992- CZ-4(A/B/C) 100/103 0.96 0.91-0.99 42 05/22/19 1988- H-2A 47/48 0.96 0.88-1.00 42 11/29/03 2001- CZ-2F(T/Y/G) 23/23 0.96 0.83-1.00 23 None 1999- CZ-3B/3C 108/112 0.96 0.91-0.99 28 04/09/20 1996- Soyuz 2-1a 42/43# 0.96 0.87-1.00 36 04/28/15 2004- CZ-2(C)(/SD/SM/YZ)78/81 0.95 0.89-0.99 0 03/13/24 1974- Soyuz 2-1b 18/18 0.95 0.79-1.00 18 None 2008- CZ-11(H) 17/17 0.95 0.78-1.00 17 None 2015- Soyuz 2-1b/Fregat 68/71 0.95 0.88-0.99 41 11/28/17 2006- Soyuz 2-1a/Fregat 29/30# 0.94 0.82-1.00 27 05/21/09 2006- PSLV 57/60 0.94 0.86-0.99 19 08/31/17 1993- Minotaur 1 12/12 0.93 0.72-1.00 12 None 2000- CZ-6 11/11 0.92 0.70-1.00 11 None 2015- Falcon Heavy 9/9 0.91 0.66-1.00 9 None 2018- CZ-3/3A 37/40 0.90 0.79-0.98 27 08/18/96 1984- Kuaizhou 1(A) 26/28 0.90 0.76-0.99 12 12/15/21 2013- CZ-7 8/8 0.90 0.63-1.00 8 None 2016- Electron 42/46 0.90 0.79-0.97 6 09/19/23 2017- Proton-M/Briz-M 91/101 0.89 0.83-0.95 1 12/13/21 2001- Delta 4 Heavy 15/16 0.89 0.70-1.00 15 12/21/04 2004-2024 Minotaur 4/5 6/6++ 0.88 0.56-1.00 6 None 2010- GSLV Mk3 6/6z 0.88 0.56-1.00 6 None 2017- CZ-5 7/8 0.88 0.51-1.00 6 07/02/17 2016- Vega 18/20xx 0.86 0.69-0.98 4 11/17/20 2012- Soyuz 2-1v 5/5 0.86 0.51-1.00 5 None 2018- CZ-6A 5/5 0.86 0.51-1.00 5 None 2022- Soyuz 2-1v/Volga 6/7 0.86 0.47-0.99 5 12/05/15 2013- Ceres 1(S) 10/11 0.85 0.60-1.00 1 09/21/23 2020- CZ-5B 4/4 0.83 0.45-1.00 4 None 2020- CZ-7A 5/6 0.83 0.42-0.99 5 03/16/20 2020- Epsilon 5/6 0.83 0.42-0.99 0 10/12/22 2013- GSLV Mk2 8/10 0.80 0.48-0.95 2 08/12/21 2010- CZ-8 3/3 0.80 0.38-1.00 3 None 2020- Jielong 3 (SD) 3/3 0.80 0.38-1.00 3 None 2022- Qased 3/3 0.80 0.38-1.00 3 None 2020- Lijian 1 (ZK-1A) 3/3 0.80 0.38-1.00 3 None 2022- Shavit(-1,-2) 10/13 0.77 0.49-0.93 6 9/6/04 1988- Angara 1.2 2/2 0.75 0.29-1.00 2 None 2022- Proton-M/DM-03 5/7 0.71 0.35-0.92 5 07/02/13 2010- KSLV-2 (Nuri) 2/3 0.67 0.20-0.94 2 10/21/21 2021- ZQ-2 2/3 0.67 0.20-0.94 2 12/14/22 2022- SLS 1/1 0.67 0.17-1.00 1 11/16/22 2022- Vulcan 1/1 0.67 0.17-1.00 1 None 2024- Angara A5/Orion 1/1 0.67 0.17-1.00 1 None 2024- Proton M 1/1 0.67 0.17-1.00 1 07/21/21 2021- Gravity-1 1/1 0.67 0.17-1.00 1 None 2024- CZ-6C 1/1 0.67 0.17-1.00 1 None 2024- KT-2 1/1 0.67 0.17-1.00 1 None 2017- Jielong-1 1/1 0.67 0.17-1.00 1 None 2019- TianLong 2 1/1 0.67 0.17-1.00 1 None 2023- SFLV 1/1 0.67 0.17-1.00 1 None 2023- Safir 5/9(C) 0.56 0.27-0.81 0 02/05/19 2008- Hyperbola 1 3/6 0.50 0.19-0.81 2 05/13/22 2019- Vega-C 1/2 0.50 0.10-0.91 0 12/21/22 2022- KZ-11 1/2 0.50 0.10-0.91 1 07/10/20 2020- SS-520 1/2 0.50 0.10-0.91 1 01/14/17 2017- SSLV 1/2 0.50 0.10-0.91 1 08/07/22 2022- Qaem 100 1/2 0.50 0.10-0.91 1 03/04/23 2023- H-3 1/2 0.50 0.10-0.91 1 03/07/23 2023- Unha (TD-2) 2/5% 0.44 0.12-0.77 2 04/12/12 2006- Chollima 1 1/3 0.43 0.06-0.80 1 05/30/23 2023- Angara A5/Persei 0/1 0.40 0.00-0.83 0 12/27/21 2021- ZQ-1 0/1 0.40 0.00-0.83 0 10/27/18 2018- OS-M 0/1 0.40 0.00-0.83 0 03/27/19 2019- RS-1 0/1 0.40 0.00-0.83 0 01/10/23 2023- Kairos 0/1 0.40 0.00-0.83 0 03/13/24 2024- Firefly Alpha 1/4 0.38 0.03-0.71 0 12/22/23 2021- Simorgh 1/6(E) 0.30 0.01-0.58 1 12/31/21 2017- ================================================================ * Lewis Point Estimate Determined as Follows. Maximum Liklihood Estimate (MLE)= x/n where x=success, n=tries For MLE<=0.5, use Wilson Method = (x+2)/(n+4) For MLE Between 0.5 and 0.9, use MLE = x/n For MLE>=0.9, use Laplace Method = (x+1)/(n+2) Lewis, J. & Lauro, J., "Improving the Accuracy of Small-Sample Estimates of Completion Rates", Journal of Usability Studies, Issue 3, Vol. 1, May 2006, pp. 136-150. * Adjusted-Wald 95% Confidence Interval Range Determined as Follows. Pw = (x+1.9208)/(n+3.8416) CI = Pw +/- 1.96*sqrt[(Pw*(1-Pw))/(n+3.8416)] (maximum range 1.00) # Does not include one successful suborbital Soyuz 2-1a test flight performed in 2004. ++Does not include two successful suborbital Minotaur 4 Lite flights in 2010-11. x Does not include Soyuz-U/Soyuz T-10-1 pre-launch fire that resulted in escape tower firing saving crew, but destroying launch vehicle on 9-26-1983. Note that 10 additional Soyuz-U launches with Ikar or Fregat upper stages (all successful) are cataloged separately. xx Does not include successful 2-11-15 suborbital flight with IXV reentry demonstrator. % Includes 2006 failure thought to be a two-stage suborbital test launch attempt. z Does not include successful inaugural suborbital test flight on 12-18-14. (C) Assumes that two unsuccessful, unreported Safir launch attempts occurred during 2012 and one during 2019. Does not count 2019 prelaunch propellant loading explosion. (D) Does not include 09/01/16 explosion that destroyed F9-29 and AMOS 6 payload during propellant loading for prelaunch hot fire test at CC 40 two days before planned launch. (D) Does not include successful 01/19/20 suborbital IFA Crew Dragon launch by F9-80. (E) Assumes 7/27/17 launch was a failed orbital attempt and that 4/19/16 launch was a suborbital test flight. =============================================================== SPACE LAUNCH REPORT RETIRED LAUNCH VEHICLE RELIABILITY STATISTICS ================================================================ by Ed Kyle ================================================================ Space launch vehicles retired since ~1980 ranked by their predicted orbital success rate*. Failures include incorrect orbits. Ranked by Lewis Point Estimate ================================================================ Lewis Successes Point AdjWald Consc. Last Dates Vehicle /Attempts Est* 95%CI* Succes Fail ================================================================ Atlas 2/2AS 63/63 0.98 0.93-1.00 63 None 1991-2004 Tsyklon 2 104/105 0.98 0.94-1.00 92 04/25/73 1967-2006 Delta 2 153/155 0.98 0.95-1.00 100 01/17/97 1989-2018 Soyuz-U 755/776x 0.97 0.96-0.98 1 12/01/16 1973-2017 STS 132/135 0.97 0.93-1.00 22(A)02/01/03 1981-2011 Ariane 5-ECA(+) 82/84 0.97 0.91-1.00 19 01/25/18 2002-2023 Soyuz-FG 59/60 0.97 0.90-1.00 5 10/11/18 2001-2019 Delta 4M(+) 29/29 0.97 0.86-1.00 29 None 2002-2019 Ariane 4 113/116 0.97 0.92-0.99 74 12/11/94 1988-2003 Delta ELT 89/93 0.95 0.89-0.99 8 05/03/86 1972-1990 Titan 2 17/17# 0.95 0.78-1.00 17 None 1964-2003 Kosmos 3M 423/446 0.95 0.92-0.97 22 11/20/00 1964-2010 Molniya M 277/296 0.93 0.90-0.96 4 06/21/05 1963-2010 Antares 2xx 13/13 0.93 0.73-1.00 13 None 2016-2023 Proton-K/DM-2M 40/42 0.93 0.83-1.00 7 11/25/02 1994-2006 Tsyklon 3 114/122 0.93 0.87-0.97 1 12/24/04 1977-2009 Proton-K/DM-2 101/109 0.92 0.86-0.96 15 10/27/99 1982-2012 Scout D-G 33/35 0.92 0.80-0.99 23 12/06/75 1972-1994 Dnepr 21/22 0.92 0.76-1.00 15 07/26/06 1999-2015 Soyuz FG/Fregat 10/10 0.92 0.68-1.00 10 None 2003-2012 Rokot/Briz/K(M) 30/32 0.91 0.79-0.99 16 02/01/11 1994-2019 H-2B 9/9 0.91 0.66-1.00 9 None 2009-2020 H-1 9/9 0.91 0.66-1.00 9 None 1986-1992 Ariane 5ES 8/8 0.90 0.63-1.00 8 None 2008-2018 Proton-K 26/29+ 0.90 0.73-0.97 9 11/29/86 1968-2000 M-3 17/19 0.89 0.67-0.98 0 01/15/95 1974-1995 Pegasus (H/XL) 40/45 0.89 0.76-0.96 31 11/04/96 1991-2021 Zenit 3SL/DMSL 32/36 0.89 0.74-0.96 1 02/01/13 1999-2014 Falcon 9 v1.1 14/15 0.88 0.68-1.00 1 06/28/15 2013-2016 Titan 4B 15/17 0.88 0.64-0.98 12 04/30/99 1997-2005 Atlas E SUS 21/23 0.88 0.72-0.99 21 12/19/81 1980-1995 Ariane 5G(+,S) 22/25 0.88 0.68-0.97 15 07/12/01 1996-2009 Titan 4A 20/22 0.88 0.71-0.99 0 08/12/98 1989-1998 Atlas 3(A/B) 6/6 0.88 0.56-1.00 6 None 2000-2005 Soyuz-U/Ikar 6/6 0.88 0.56-1.00 6 None 1999-1999 Proton-M/DM-2 6/6 0.88 0.56-1.00 6 None 2007-2010 Proton-K/17S40 6/6 0.88 0.56-1.00 6 None 1997-2002 Atlas H SUS 5/5 0.86 0.51-1.00 5 None 1983-1987 Titan 2(Star) 6/7% 0.86 0.47-0.99 6 10/5/93 1964-2003 M-5 6/7 0.86 0.47-0.99 4 02/10/00 1997-2006 START(-1) 6/7 0.86 0.47-0.99 5 03/28/95 1993-2006 Zenit 3F/FregSB 4/4 0.83 0.45-1.00 4 None 2011-2017 Soyuz-U/Fregat 4/4 0.83 0.45-1.00 4 None 2000-2000 Zenit 3SLB/DMSLB 5/6 0.83 0.42-0.99 5(B)04/28/08 2008-2015 Titan 34D 12/15 0.80 0.54-0.94 3 09/02/88 1982-1989 Falcon 9 v1.0 4/5 0.80 0.36-0.98 1 10/08/12 2010-2013 Antares 1xx 4/5 0.80 0.36-0.98 0 10/28/14 2013-2014 Strela 3/3 0.80 0.38-1.00 3 None 2003-2019 Zenit 2(M/SB) 30/38 0.79 0.63-0.89 7 09/09/98 1985-2015 Angara 5/Briz-M 2/2 0.75 0.29-1.00 2 None 2014-2020 Shitl' 2/2 0.75 0.29-1.00 2 None 1998-2006 Proton-K/Briz-M 3/4 0.75 0.29-0.97 3 07/05/99 1999-2003 Titan 3 Comm. 3/4 0.75 0.29-0.97 2 03/14/90 1990-1992 Athena 1 3/4 0.75 0.29-0.97 3 08/15/95 1995-2001 Atlas G/Centaur 13/18 0.72 0.49-0.88 4 03/25/93 1984-1997 H-2 5/7 0.71 0.35-0.92 0 11/15/99 1994-1999 Taurus (XL) 7/10 0.70 0.39-0.90 1 3/4/11 1994-2017 LauncherOne 4/6 0.67 0.30-0.91 0 01/09/23 2020-2023 Athena 2 2/3 0.67 0.29-0.94 1 04/27/99 1998-1999 Soyuz 2-1a/Volga 1/1 0.67 0.17-1.00 1 None 2016-2016 Falcon 1 2/5 0.44 0.12-0.77 2 08/03/08 2006-2009 KSLV-1 (Angara) 1/3 0.43 0.06-0.80 1 06/10/10 2009-2013 Delta 3 1/3 0.43 0.06-0.80 1 05/05/99 1998-2000 GSLV Mk1 2/6 0.40 0.09-0.70 0 12/25/10 2001-2010 Terran 1 0/1 0.40 0.00-0.83 0 03/23/23 2023-2023 Super Strypi 0/1 0.40 0.00-0.83 0 11/04/15 2015-2015 Volna 0/1 0.40 0.00-0.83 0 06/21/05 2005-2005 Conestoga 0/1 0.40 0.00-0.83 0 10/23/95 1995-1995 Astra Rocket 3 2/7 0.36 0.07-0.65 0 06/12/22 2020-2022 VLS-1 0/2 0.33 0.00-0.71 0(E)12/11/99 1997-1999 ================================================================ * Lewis Point Estimate Determined as Follows. Maximum Liklihood Estimate (MLE)= x/n where x=success, n=tries For MLE<=0.5, use Wilson Method = (x+2)/(n+4) For MLE between 0.5 and 0.9, use MLE = x/n For MLE>=0.9, use Laplace Method = (x+1)/(n+2) Lewis, J. & Lauro, J., "Improving the Accuracy of Small-Sample Estimates of Completion Rates", Journal of Usability Studies, Issue 3, Vol. 1, May 2006, pp. 136-150. * Adjusted-Wald 95% Confidence Interval Range Determined as Follows. Pw = (x+1.9208)/(n+3.8416) CI = Pw +/- 1.96*sqrt[(Pw*(1-Pw))/(n+3.8416)] (maximum range 1.00) # Includes 11 orbital Gemini Titan 2 and 6 Titan 23G missions. % Seven Titan 23G flights that flew suborbital profiles with Star 37 solid rocket motors providing the final orbital velocity increment. The single failure listed here involved the Star 37 stage. + Does not include one successful suborbital Proton-K test flight performed in 1970. x Does not include Soyuz-U/Soyuz T-10-1 pre-launch fire that resulted in escape tower firing saving crew, but destroying launch vehicle on 9-26-1983. Note that 10 additional Soyuz-U launches with Ikar or Fregat upper stages (all successful) are cataloged separately. (A) 2003 STS-107 Columbia failure during reentry result of damage suffered during launch phase. (B) Amos-3 inserted in orbit with 1,500 km short perigee and 0.7 deg unplanned inclination. Amos 3 reportedly lost two to three years of 18 year design life. (E) Does not include 08/22/03 pre-launch pad explosion that killed 21 during T-3 day launch preps.